Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Old Dominion +140 ML over South Florida

Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL

Cure Bowl

5:00 PM ET. Bowl season is where context outweighs credentials, and this matchup is a textbook example. South Florida arrives with the better résumé, the higher ceiling, and quasi-home field advantage — but it’s Old Dominion that appears far more invested in what this game represents.

Just weeks ago, the Bulls were dreaming big. They sat firmly in the national conversation, flirting with a College Football Playoff pathway. Then Navy ended those dreams. Soon after, the playoff dream disappeared, and head coach Alex Golesh accepted a job at Auburn. Now USF is preparing for an early bowl game under entirely different circumstances, with leadership uncertainty and a season arc that ended far differently than it began with the mangling of Boise State and the upset of Florida in The Swamp. USF was once ranked close to the Top Ten.

Old Dominion’s perspective couldn’t be more different. The Monarchs finished 5–7 last season. Now they’re staring at a chance to secure one of the most meaningful wins in program history. A victory here would potentially deliver their second 10-win season since moving to the FBS level and their first double-digit win campaign in nearly a decade. Doing it against a South Florida team that was ranked and pencilled into many CFP brackets would move the needle further.

The betting market still leans toward USF, largely because the Bulls have rewarded backers all season. The Bulls have been one of the most profitable betting seasons in the country. That reputation carries weight, but it also inflates price. Bowl games punish teams whose motivation doesn’t match their reputation. Reading between the lines, it’s hard to argue that South Florida is treating this game as anything more than an obligation. Old Dominion, meanwhile, is playing with house money. They get the chance to make history, validate their season, and knock off a name opponent. That kind of urgency often shows up in bowl games, especially against teams coping with coaching transitions and unmet expectations. In bowl season, the team with ODU’s profile is often the sharper side and we get them at a plus price. We’ll take it. Monarchs on the monkey line.

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