Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Jacksonville St +6½ -110 over North Dakota State

5:30 PM EST. The number on Jacksonville State is telling us to take the obvious side and lay the points with North Dakota State in its first game as an FBS program. We are not buying it. This is exactly the type of opener where the market can place too much emphasis on the Bison name, the home crowd and the significance of the occasion. Jacksonville State has already established the type of program that travels well, plays with an edge and is comfortable in games that become physical and uncomfortable.

There is also a coaching and continuity angle that works in our favor. Jacksonville State is not walking into Fargo simply to participate in North Dakota State's FBS celebration. The Gamecocks have a returning quarterback who brings experience and mobility to an offense that should have enough structure to keep this game from getting away. That matters against a North Dakota State team introducing a new quarterback and replacing important pieces. The Bison may reload better than most programs, but reloading is not the same thing as having everything operating smoothly in Week 0.

We also expect Jacksonville State to embrace the underdog role. There is very little pressure on the Gamecocks compared with the expectations sitting on the home side. North Dakota State has the FBS debut, the home crowd and the history working in its favor, but all of that also creates expectations. Jacksonville State simply needs to stay within striking distance and make North Dakota State earn every possession. This is not a matchup where we need the Gamecocks to dominate; we need them to make the game competitive from start to finish.

The Bison may eventually prove they belong at the FBS level, but we are not prepared to pay the premium for that assumption tonight. Jacksonville State has enough experience, enough returning talent and enough toughness to make this a much closer contest than the market suggests. We are taking the points with JSU and expecting the Gamecocks to keep this one within the number.

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