Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Streaming: ABC

Louisville +6½ -105 over Mississippi

7:30 PM EST. There is no question which side has the sexier résumé coming into Nashville. Mississippi returns Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy from a team that came within one victory of playing for the national championship, and that combination alone is going to attract plenty of attention at the betting window. However, we're not being asked which team has the bigger names or which one will finish higher in the rankings. We're being asked to spot nearly a touchdown in the first game of a new season, at a neutral site, with a program that has undergone significant change. At +6½, Louisville is the side that interests us.

The biggest adjustment for Mississippi isn't on the field. Pete Golding now has the program completely in his hands after Lane Kiffin's departure, and there is a considerable difference between taking over during the chaos of a playoff run and building your own operation from the ground up. The offensive staff has changed as well, meaning Chambliss and company are learning a new voice, new terminology and new wrinkles. Maybe the transition is seamless, but the market appears to be pricing Mississippi much closer to the finished product we saw last December than a team beginning a new chapter in September. We're not willing to make that assumption.

Louisville provides an interesting contrast because Jeff Brohm's fingerprints are already all over this program. Lincoln Kienholz is inexperienced, but this is exactly the type of quarterback situation in which we trust Brohm. Kienholz spent three years in the Ohio State program and possesses enough mobility and arm talent to give this offense another dimension. Better still, he doesn't have to walk into his first start and become Superman. Isaac Brown gives Louisville a legitimate weapon out of the backfield, and the Cardinals have enough up front and enough defensive playmakers to make Mississippi earn its points. Brohm can build a game plan around Kienholz rather than asking Kienholz to carry the game plan.

There is a tendency in Week 1 to price what we remember. What everyone remembers is Mississippi making a deep playoff run with Chambliss emerging as one of the best quarterbacks in the country. What is much harder to price is everything that has changed since then. Louisville doesn't have to be better than Mississippi to cash this ticket. It just has to be competitive, and we see two programs close enough in overall quality that nearly a touchdown on a neutral field is too generous. The Rebels may very well leave Nashville 1-0, but we're not convinced they're leaving by seven or more. Don't be surprised if Louisville has a chance to win it outright in the fourth quarter.

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