Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY

Streaming: ACC Network

California +3½ -110 over Syracuse

3:30 PM EST. The Orange just hung 66 points on New Hampshire, Steve Angeli returned looking like he'd never been injured, and California is coming off a 45-24 loss to UCLA in which the Bears completely unraveled in the fourth quarter. Add Cal traveling nearly 3,000 miles across the country and you've got yourself a beautiful little package for anyone looking to lay 3½ with Syracuse. The tout sheets love it, the arguments all sound perfectly reasonable and Syracuse is unquestionably the more comfortable ticket. That's usually when we start looking across the street.

We're not putting much stock into Syracuse beating New Hampshire 66-3. They were supposed to destroy them and they did. What we don't know is whether an Orange defense that was among the worst units in the country last season has suddenly been repaired. New Hampshire wasn't capable of answering that question. California can. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a legitimate difference-maker at quarterback with the arm talent to attack Syracuse in ways New Hampshire couldn't dream of. Yes, he threw two ugly fourth-quarter interceptions against UCLA. He's also a talented young quarterback who had Cal tied entering the fourth quarter before everything went sideways. We're not going to define him—or this team—by one bad quarter.

There's also a huge difference between betting a team after everything went right and betting one after everything went wrong. Syracuse's stock couldn't have had a much better opening week. Cal's couldn't have had a much worse finish. That's exactly the setup we want. The Bears have already shown they can handle these ridiculous cross-country trips, and Tosh Lupoi spent years building and coordinating defenses at the highest levels of college football. We seriously doubt he's shrugging his shoulders after watching UCLA run through his defense. Cal should be a much more desperate and focused team this week, while we're being compensated with more than a field goal to find out.

Maybe Syracuse really is ready to bounce back from last year's disaster. Maybe Angeli stays healthy and the Orange become a legitimate ACC factor. But we're not paying for that story after they beat up an overmatched FCS opponent. We're buying California after the market watched its worst 15 minutes of football and we're selling Syracuse after the market watched its best 60. That's much more our style. When practically every argument you read explains why the favorite is the right side, we'll happily take the talented, unpopular dog and the hook.

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