Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL

Streaming: ESPN+

Georgia Southern +3½ -110 over Jacksonville St.

7:00 PM EST. Georgia Southern just lost 22-7 at Clemson, so there isn't going to be a stampede to the betting window to grab the Eagles. Good. That's precisely when we're interested. That Clemson game was an ugly, weather-interrupted mess, but Georgia Southern was within one score for most of the afternoon and held Clemson to 22 points in Death Valley. Now the Eagles drop several weight classes and somehow we're getting more than a field goal against Jacksonville State. If Georgia Southern can spend an afternoon trading punches with Clemson, we're not particularly frightened about sending them to Jacksonville, Alabama.

Jacksonville State has already been through the fucking washing machine this season. This will be its fourth consecutive week playing football, with difficult road trips already behind it and last week's adventure at Ohio requiring four overtimes before the Gamecocks finally lost 29-27. That's not some meaningless scheduling footnote. Jacksonville State quarterback Caden Creel threw 24 passes and carried the ball another 29 times. That's 53 touches for your quarterback before you even start counting the hits he absorbed when he wasn't carrying the football. Now everybody gets six days to ice themselves down, climb out of bed and do it again.

Meanwhile, that Georgia Southern loss at Clemson might have been more encouraging than the scoreboard suggests. Max Johnson threw for 244 yards without an interception, Ashton Hollins had 97 receiving yards and the Eagles' defense kept them hanging around against a team that was supposed to dispose of them comfortably. Compare that with Jacksonville State, which just failed to finish off an Ohio team that was digging so deep into its quarterback room it was getting close to asking whether anyone in the marching band had played the position in high school. One team comes in off a respectable loss to Clemson. The other comes home after playing enough overtime football to qualify for time-and-a-half.

And we get the hook. That's the important part. Jacksonville State doesn't have to be bad for Georgia Southern +3½ to be the right side. This looks like two fairly comparable teams being priced as though the Gamecocks deserve considerably more respect simply because they're back home. We'll disagree. Georgia Southern has already demonstrated that its defense can keep it attached to a game against much better competition, and Jacksonville State has been playing meaningful football every Saturday since some people were still squeezing in their final summer barbecue. Give us the fresher team, the defense and that beautiful half-point sitting above the field goal.

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