Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM

Stream: CBSSN

Western Kentucky +115 over New Mexico St.

8:00 PM EST. Western Kentucky's record requires a little context. The Hilltoppers spent September getting paid to visit Georgia and Indiana, two top-five teams that were never realistic measuring sticks for where this program stands. Throw in a poor performance at Nevada and WKU's numbers against FBS competition look horrific. Last week's 52-point, nearly 600-yard performance against Mercyhurst doesn't erase those problems, but it did give this offense a chance to breathe. More importantly, quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for more than 300 yards with three touchdowns, and now the level of competition drops dramatically again.

New Mexico State isn't Georgia, Indiana or anything close to them. The Aggies' defense has had its own problems, particularly against explosive passes, and hasn't generated enough pressure or turnovers to compensate. That's a useful matchup for Tisdale, who saw this same Tony Sanchez defense last season and threw for 301 yards and four touchdowns in a 35-16 Western Kentucky victory. Tyson Helton's teams have handled New Mexico State comfortably in each of the past two meetings, and while we're not betting last year's game, there isn't much about this year's Aggies that suggests the matchup has suddenly flipped.

The bigger concern is New Mexico State's offense. The Aggies want to play quickly and throw the football, but Trey Hedden has already produced 10 turnover-worthy throws and five interceptions. He added two picks and a fumble against New Mexico before being replaced by Adam Damante, leaving some uncertainty about who even starts this game. New Mexico State's earlier performance against Florida State generated plenty of attention, but the offense managed only 13 points at Hawaii, with an 84-yard fumble-return touchdown making the final score look considerably better than the offensive performance deserved. There isn't much of a running game to fall back on, either.

Western Kentucky has plenty of flaws, which is why we're getting +115, but its ugliest results came during an absolutely brutal stretch of scheduling. Four of its first five games were on the road, including trips to Reno, Athens and Bloomington. This is finally an opponent playing in the same weight class. WKU has the more trustworthy quarterback situation, a matchup its offense has exploited before, and an opponent with serious offensive and defensive questions of its own. We're willing to look past the ugly September numbers and take the Hilltoppers outright at plus money.

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