Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID

Stream: CBSNN

Utah St. +19½ -110 over Boise St.

7:30 PM EST. There might not be a team in the Group of Six carrying more market respect right now than Boise State. The Broncos have already knocked off Memphis and Western Michigan, their only loss came at highly regarded Oregon, and they're being discussed as the most likely Group of Six representative in the playoff. All of that may prove accurate. It also creates exactly the type of situation where the market begins charging a premium to get behind them.

Utah State's reputation is still being influenced by an opening-week loss to FCS Idaho State as a 15½-point favorite, but that result was far uglier on the scoreboard than it was on the field. The Aggies outgained Idaho State 407-241 but committed four more turnovers. They followed that by nearly pulling off a massive upset at Washington as a 27½-point dog, losing by only two, then faced another difficult assignment against Utah before beating a respectable Troy team last week. That's a demanding early schedule, and we're not interested in valuing Utah State as if that Idaho State result tells us everything we need to know.

The more important development is at quarterback. Virginia transfer Grady Brosterhous appears to have given Bronco Mendenhall some stability at the position after McCae Hillstead struggled with turnovers and then injured his arm. Brosterhous accounted for 331 yards rushing and passing against Troy, and his ability to make plays with both his arm and legs gives the Aggies a dimension they didn't have early in the season. Utah State isn't suddenly an offensive powerhouse, but it looks considerably more functional than the team that stumbled through the opener.

Boise State is clearly the superior team, but 20½ points is an enormous tax, particularly for an offense that operates at one of the slowest tempos in the country. The Broncos rank 131st in offensive plays per minute, which naturally reduces possessions and makes creating three-touchdown margins more difficult. We already saw an example of that against South Dakota, when Boise was unable to shake an FCS opponent until the fourth quarter despite being a substantial home favorite.

Utah State is allowing just 22 points per game, has already dealt with Washington and Utah, and now catches a Boise team whose price is being driven upward by playoff expectations and three impressive results. The Broncos may very well win comfortably, but we're being asked to confuse Boise is much better with Boise should be laying more than three touchdowns. Our numbers don't see that kind of separation.

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