Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY

Stream: ESPN

Louisville -3½  -110 over Florida St.

the governor, declare a state holiday and give Mike Norvell a contract extension. The Seminoles hammered Virginia 38-7 last week, and suddenly there's optimism in Tallahassee for the first time in what seems like a decade. Of course, when you've won just four ACC games since the beginning of the 2024 season, beating anybody with a pulse is cause for celebration.

Florida State's victory was impressive on the scoreboard, but a closer examination tells a different story. Virginia quarterback Beau Pribula was clearly less than healthy, was sacked ten times and struggled to move the football. The Cavaliers repeatedly put their defense in difficult situations, including handing Florida State excellent field position. The Seminoles' first three possessions generated just 25 yards, and it took them most of the first half to establish control despite Virginia doing everything short of personally escorting Florida State players into the end zone.

Nevertheless, a 38-7 victory over a highly regarded Virginia team looks terrific, and the market has responded accordingly. Florida State's stock is climbing, while Louisville's stock is sitting somewhere near the bottom of the ACC bargain bin. The Cardinals are 2-3, have dropped consecutive games to Wake Forest and NC State, and have been one of the conference's biggest disappointments. This was supposed to be an eight-win team capable of challenging for an ACC title. Instead, Jeff Brohm's crew has spent September finding creative ways to lose close football games.

But here's the important distinction: All three Louisville losses have come by exactly three points. That's not the profile of a team getting blown off the field every Saturday. It's the profile of a team whose record looks considerably worse than its actual competitiveness.

Louisville's defense was poor against NC State, surrendering 493 yards and 26 first downs, but the Cardinals' offense was productive despite quarterback Lincoln Kienholz dealing with injury concerns. There are legitimate problems here, but they're not nearly as hopeless as a 2-3 record might suggest. Florida State, meanwhile, is being rewarded for one spectacular-looking victory that came against an opponent with a compromised quarterback. Let's also remember that the Seminoles struggled badly with Central Arkansas the previous week. One convincing result doesn't erase those concerns.

There's another interesting element to this matchup. All five Florida State touchdowns against Virginia came on runs by quarterback Ashton Daniels. Louisville has had an entire week to study that performance, and Brohm is certainly aware of where the Seminoles' offense found its success.

The Cardinals are unpopular, their record is ugly, and their recent performances have disappointed just about everybody who expected them to contend in the ACC. Florida State, on the other hand, is enjoying a rare moment of positive publicity. That's exactly the kind of perception shift that creates an opportunity.

The Seminoles aren't suddenly a powerhouse because they beat an injury-compromised Virginia team, and Louisville isn't suddenly a doormat because it lost three games by a field goal apiece. We're selling Florida State after its most impressive performance in ages and buying Louisville when nobody wants anything to do with the Cardinals. The Seminoles had their celebration last week. Now comes the considerably more difficult assignment of proving it wasn't a one-week illusion.

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