Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV

Stream:TNT

Cincinnati +103 over West Virginia

12:00 PM EST.  Kickoff in Morgantown on Homecoming — the one day the couches are supposed to be safe. This is a pick'em dressed up as a 1.5-point spread: West Virginia is 3-3, winless in the Big 12, and fresh off getting boat-raced 52-31 by Arizona. Cincinnati is 4-1, rested off a bye, and brings the 12th-best rushing attack in the country (230.8 yards a game) into a stadium where the home team's run defense ranks dead last in the Big 12 (163.8 a game). When your strength staples itself directly to their weakness, you don't need the points. Take the moneyline and run.

The ground game is a three-headed monster: Gi'Bran Payne (392 yards, 6.3 a pop), Cole Tabb (330 yards at a silly 9.7 per carry), and quarterback JC French IV adding 193 rushing yards of his own. West Virginia's defense gives up 32.7 points a game — 126th in the country — and can't stop the run or the pass. That's not a defense, that's a turnstile wearing a helmet. Cincinnati's recipe is simple: pound the rock, chew the clock, and let Michael Hawkins Jr. watch it all from the sideline.

Now the honest part, because the Mountaineers aren't paying us to ignore them: Hawkins is a genuine problem — 672 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns from the quarterback position, leading the nation's fifth-ranked rushing attack (295.5 a game) against a Cincinnati secondary ranked 125th against the pass. And the Bearcats' last outing was a 34-7 woodshed job against the same Arizona team that just hung 52 on West Virginia. But the home team hasn't won a conference game all year, and they're laying points to a rested team that runs it better than anyone they've faced. Bearcats walk out of Morgantown with the win.

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