Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN

Stream:CBSSN

Kennesaw State +121 over Middle Tennessee

7:00 PM EST. Don't let the records fool you — this is a coin-flip game wearing a favourite's clothing. Kennesaw State is 1-6, sure, but the Owls have lost three of their last four by three points or fewer: 17-14 at Arkansas State, 27-26 to Jacksonville State, 24-21 at Missouri State on a field goal as time expired. That's not a bad team, that's an unlucky team, and you're betting the coin flips the other way. Middle Tennessee is 4-3 and 3-0 at home, but the Blue Raiders convert just over a quarter of their third downs and give up nearly 195 rushing yards a game — which is exactly the door a dual-threat quarterback walks through. Rickie Collins has thrown for 1,426 yards and run for 295 more with five rushing scores; against a defence that can't stop the run or stay on the field on third down, his legs keep Kennesaw out of the obvious passing situations that have killed its drives.

The other half of the case is that Kennesaw's defence is quietly the better unit on the field. The Owls give up 25 points a game to Middle Tennessee's 27.6, and 380 yards to the Blue Raiders' 406. Middle Tennessee's offence scores just 23.3 a game, and while Roman Gagliano's 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio is the best number on either roster, the Blue Raiders don't pile up yards — they grind, they kick, and they win close. That's fine when you're laying points against a team that folds. Kennesaw doesn't fold; it loses by a field goal, then shows up the next week and loses by a field goal again. In a game projected around 24-21 either way, the moneyline dog at plus money is the side with the margin for error.

Because the Liberty game is staring at us: last Thursday was different. Liberty held the ball for more than 37 minutes, beat Kennesaw 34-6, and held the Owls to a pair of field goals — the kind of loss that makes you wonder if a team is finally running out of fight. Collins has thrown more interceptions (five) than passing touchdowns (four), tight end Gerald Bullock Jr. and receiver Zion Booker are both questionable, and the Owls are 0-3 on the road. Middle Tennessee has won two straight, Gagliano doesn't turn it over, the Blue Raiders are plus-5 in turnovers, and kicker Dominic Bourgeois has the range to win a close finish. But a team that keeps losing by three doesn't need to get good tonight, it needs one bounce, one stop, one drive to go its way. Let's take Kennesaw State to finally get it.

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