Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, Nebraska

Stream: BTN (Big 10 Network)

Washington +7½ over Nebraska

8:00 PM EST. Something interesting has happened at Washington, and it has very little to do with statistics, offensive schemes, or anything else that shows up in a box score. The Huskies spent the first six games of the season looking like a team that would rather be anywhere else. They covered just once during that stretch, and the energy surrounding the program was noticeably lacking. There have been reports of friction within the locker room surrounding quarterback Demond Williams Jr., his flirtation with LSU, and his eventual return to Washington with a lucrative NIL arrangement. Whether those reports explain the team's early struggles is impossible to establish, but the timing of what happened next is certainly interesting.

Williams was injured during Washington's loss to Iowa, opening the door for backup Elijah Brown. Suddenly, the Huskies looked like a different football team. Brown provided an immediate spark and followed that performance by throwing for 302 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-26 victory at Purdue. Washington generated 488 yards of offense despite turning the ball over five times. More importantly, the Huskies played with an enthusiasm and confidence that had been missing for much of the season. Sometimes a quarterback change does more than change the guy throwing the football. It changes the entire atmosphere around a team. Whether Brown is actually responsible for that transformation is debatable, but Washington certainly looked rejuvenated with him running the offense.

Now comes the interesting part. Washington is coming off a bye, and Jedd Fisch has a decision to make with Williams returning to health. Brown has given the Huskies a reason to reconsider their quarterback situation, and the uncertainty surrounding the position is something the market has to account for. We would prefer Brown under center, given the response Washington has shown with him playing, but the bigger point is that the Huskies appear to have found something that was missing earlier in the season. Their record and season-long statistics don't necessarily reflect the team that showed up at Purdue. That's precisely the kind of disconnect that can create an opportunity in the betting market.

Nebraska, meanwhile, is being priced like a team that hasn't missed a beat. The Cornhuskers opened the season with five consecutive victories, but their last two games tell a different story. They blew fourth-quarter leads against both Indiana and Oregon, losing by three points each time. That's two particularly painful defeats for a program that had been building considerable momentum. Nebraska was averaging nearly 44 points during its five-game winning streak but managed just 31 combined against the Hoosiers and Ducks. Anthony Colandrea, who had been producing explosive plays earlier in the season, has also cooled considerably. The Huskers are still getting credit for their impressive start, but the team we've watched over the past two games hasn't looked nearly as formidable.

Both teams had last weekend off, so there's no scheduling advantage in terms of rest. However, there is a psychological difference between the two situations. Washington enters Lincoln having finally produced an encouraging performance, while Nebraska has spent two weeks trying to digest consecutive games it had every opportunity to win. The Cornhuskers are returning home for their Blackout game, and the atmosphere should be electric. That's all well and good, but atmosphere doesn't cover point spreads. Nebraska is being asked to win by more than a touchdown against a Washington team that may be considerably better than its early-season results suggest.

We're not interested in debating which team has the superior defense, which quarterback has the stronger arm, or how many yards either side averages on third down. Those numbers are available to everyone, and they're already reflected in the price. What interests us is a Washington team whose perception has been damaged by six weeks of uninspired football, facing a Nebraska team still receiving considerable respect for what it accomplished in September. The Huskies have shown signs of life, the Cornhuskers have shown signs of vulnerability, and the market is offering us more than a touchdown. We don't need Washington to win in Lincoln. We just need the rejuvenated version of the Huskies to show up and make Nebraska earn every inch of this victory.

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