Virginia Tech @ SMU
Virginia Tech +6 -105 over SMU

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX

Stream: ESPN

Virginia Tech +6 -105 over SMU

7:00 PM EST. Somebody explain the price, because the résumés don't. Two 6-2 teams walk into Dallas scoring nearly identical points, Virginia Tech 35.0 a game, SMU 35.3 and the market wants you to lay almost a full touchdown with the home side anyway. The difference is the calendar. The Hokies haven't played since October 24, when they walked into Death Valley and beat Clemson 20-16 for the first time since 2007, erasing a fourth-quarter deficit on a fourth-and-1 touchdown throw to tight end Luke Reynolds. They've had two weeks to get healthy and game-plan, and James Franklin gets starting linemen Montavious Cunningham and Brody Meadows back off the bye. SMU, meanwhile, is on a short week off a 30-27 loss at Syracuse where its line gave up four sacks  and now turns around on a Friday night against a rested defense allowing just 314.7 yards a game.

 

The quarterback matchup is a coin flip dressed up as a mismatch. Kevin Jennings is SMU's record-book vandal, and he hung 351 yards on Syracuse in a loss. But Ethan Grunkemeyer is the more careful surgeon: 71.4% completions, 2,140 yards, 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions all season both in the same game, plus five rushing scores for when the pocket gets rude. That ball security is the cover's insurance policy, because Virginia Tech's defense travels. It held Boston College to 111 passing yards and Pitt to 191, and its front seven lives in backfields (8 sacks from its top rusher). The Hokies have also been in every game they've played their two losses came by two points and five points, the two-pointer a 578-yard afternoon at Pitt undone by turnovers and a missed game-winning kick. In a game with a total pushing 56.5, a team that doesn't quit and doesn't give the ball away is exactly who you want holding points late. Between two equals, with the rest edge, the healthier line and the safer quarterback, the points are simply too many.

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Our Pick

Virginia Tech +6 -105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.90)

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