Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Kent St. +5½ -110 over Bowling Green

Nov 10, 7:00 PM EST. Tuesday night MACtion does not reward favourites, and Bowling Green is a strange team to ask for a favour. The Falcons are 2-7, losers of three straight, and already eliminated from bowl contention, which makes this the deadest spot on their schedule: a cold November night against a bad team, with a trip to Toledo next and nothing left to protect. Worse, they keep finding new ways to lose the close ones. Bowling Green is 1-4 in one score games this season, lost at home to Ball State by a point, lost at Buffalo by seven, and last time out at Western Michigan the finish was a quarterback meltdown, interceptions on the final possessions to slam the door on themselves. Jay Kastantin has thrown for 1,567 yards and 11 touchdowns, but he also has eight interceptions, and his last outing was 149 yards with two picks. A team that cannot close, cannot protect the ball late, and has nothing to play for is now being asked to win by six.

Kent State, for all its flaws, shows up with a reason to care. The Golden Flashes have to win out to reach a bowl, and their best football is recent: a 35-20 Wagon Wheel win over Akron where Dru DeShields accounted for all five touchdowns, throwing for 294 yards and four scores and running in a fifth, with Wayne Harris catching nine balls for 156 yards and three touchdowns. Kent also went to Ohio earlier this season as a 3.5 point dog and lost 13-10, exactly the kind of low scoring MAC rock fight this profiles as, with a total of 44.5 and November wind swirling through the Doyt, one of the windiest stadiums in the conference. In a game likely played in the low 40s for combined points, every point of spread is expensive, and 5.5 is a genuine mountain for a favourite that scores in the low 20s and gives the ball away late.

The counters are ugly and they go in the piece. Kent State is winless on the road this season with a dreadful road scoring margin, it lost outright as a seven point favourite at 1-7 Sacramento State in its last game, its turnover margin is minus 8, its red zone offence is among the worst in the country, and Bowling Green is at home off a bye. All true. The bet is narrower than the matchup: a motivated dog with a quarterback coming off a five touchdown game, catching nearly a touchdown in a low total wind game, against an eliminated favourite that specializes in losing late.

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