Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Scheumann Stadium, Muncie

Stream:ESPN2

Ball State +102 over Buffalo

7:30 PM EST. The board has Ball State between +102 and +110 straight up, and the market has been walking toward the Cardinals all week, Buffalo opening -3 and getting bet down to -1.5 and -2.5 depending on the shop. When a home team in the MAC keeps taking money in a game priced this tight, it is usually not an accident, and the venue explains a lot of it: Ball State has covered 15 of its last 17 games at Scheumann Stadium and four straight spreads overall, because this team plays every single game to the final possession and refuses to lose by margin. The Cardinals beat Bowling Green 32-31 in overtime, handled Sacramento State 34-17, and last Wednesday at UMass they drove 75 yards in the final minute to force overtime before losing 31-30 on a missed extra point. That is not a bad team. That is a team one kick away from 4-5 with a winning streak.

The engine is Keldric Luster, and Buffalo has to solve him for four quarters. Luster has thrown for 1,482 yards and 10 touchdowns and added 278 rushing yards and three more scores on the ground, so every Ball State snap is a two way problem, with Jalen Bonds and TJ Horton keeping defenses honest out of the backfield. And look at who is walking into this building. Buffalo needed a miracle eight days ago, down 31-16 in the fourth quarter at Miami (Ohio) before Jason Wright dragged them into overtime and out of it, 34-31. Wright threw for 358 yards and accounted for four touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions, and the Bulls have now played back to back overtime style knife fights, including a 25-18 overtime win over UMass. Emotional road comeback, short week, another road trip, light rain in Muncie. That is a team running on fumes and adrenaline, and adrenaline does not travel twice. Ball State, meanwhile, has to win out to see a bowl game, which makes this a season on the line spot at home, and desperate home teams in this conference are a menace.

The honest other side: Buffalo is the better football team, full stop. The Bulls are 6-3 and 4-1 in the MAC with a title game in reach, Wright and Chance Morrow (12 catches, 199 yards last week) can carve up a secondary, and Ball State lost the last meeting between these two 51-48, which tells you the Cardinals' defense can be had. If Buffalo plays clean, it probably wins. But this number has been begging for the home team all week, Ball State lives in one score games in its own building, and the Bulls are one emotional hangover away from finding out what Muncie does to favourites. Take Ball State straight up.

Sportsinteraction