Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, VA

Streaming: ACC Network

Stanford +15½ over Virginia Tech

7:30 PM EST. There's a category of favorites that deserves special attention, and it's not the Alabama or Ohio State variety. It's the programs that have spent years struggling, finally put together a respectable season, and suddenly find themselves being asked to win conference games by three touchdowns. Virginia Tech fits that description. James Franklin has the Hokies sitting at 6-3, a significant improvement for a program that went 3-9 a year ago. But the market has apparently decided that improvement also makes Virginia Tech a reliable double-digit favorite. We're not convinced the price has caught up with reality. It may have passed it.

Consider Virginia Tech's recent history. The Hokies have posted three losing seasons in the past four years, and their turnaround under Franklin is still very much a work in progress. More importantly, look at what they've actually accomplished against Power Conference opponents this season. Virginia Tech defeated Maryland by nine, Boston College by seven, Georgia Tech by ten and Clemson by four. Four victories, none by more than ten points. Now, immediately following a 23-point loss at SMU, the Hokies are being asked to defeat Stanford by at least 16. That's quite a promotion for a team that hasn't demonstrated an ability to consistently put conference opponents away.

Stanford certainly isn't going to attract much public support. The Cardinal are 4-5, have lost 15 consecutive road games and are allowing 37.3 points per contest. That's an ugly résumé, and the market has made sure everyone knows it. But those shortcomings are hardly a secret. They're already reflected in a number that requires Virginia Tech to deliver its most convincing conference victory of the season. Stanford's reputation is sitting near rock bottom, while the Hokies are receiving considerable credit for their improved record. That's the kind of pricing disparity worth investigating.

The Cardinal also have a quarterback capable of making this uncomfortable for the favorite. Davis Warren has thrown for approximately 2,200 yards with 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions, giving Stanford a legitimate passing attack. Virginia Tech's secondary has been vulnerable, and Stanford's willingness to throw the football provides an avenue to remain competitive even if its defense continues to struggle. Nobody is suggesting the Cardinal suddenly become a defensive powerhouse. The attraction is that their offense can potentially exploit an opponent that hasn't shown much ability to separate itself from conference competition.

Virginia Tech deserves recognition for turning things around, but recognition and laying 15½ points are two entirely different propositions. The Hokies are coming off a lopsided defeat, haven't beaten a Power Conference opponent by more than ten, and are now priced as though a comfortable victory is practically automatic. Stanford is an unattractive underdog with plenty of problems, but that's precisely why we're being offered more than two touchdowns. The market is charging a premium for Virginia Tech's improvement while discounting almost everything Stanford brings to the table. We'll gladly accept the points.

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