Bookmaker   O37½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Atlanta/Tennessee over 37½ Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN

7:00 PM ET. The market is reacting to what it saw last week. Tennessee scored seven. Atlanta scored ten. Now we get a deflated total in the mid-30s and the narrative that “both teams can’t move the ball.” That’s convenient — and also completely misleading.

Let’s start with Atlanta. They didn’t score much in the opener, true, but the intent was obvious. They threw it 30 times with three different quarterbacks and gave Logan Woodside a heavy workload. What we saw was an offense that’s trying to build some passing depth behind Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., not an offense that was sputtering. Penix is expected to get more reps this week, and the coaching staff has already hinted at giving him more freedom with the playbook. That matters, because the Titans’ pass defense got carved up by Tampa Bay’s second and third-stringers for over 300 yards. With Bijan Robinson likely to see a couple of touches, the Falcons suddenly become a far more dynamic threat.

Tennessee, meanwhile, didn’t show their hand in Week 1. Cam Ward was limited to a few series, and the rest was left in the incapable hands of Brandon Allen and Tim Boyle. Neither guy could move the chains. This week is different. Ward is expected to play longer, and if the Titans want to see what they’ve got in the rookie, the leash comes off. Even if it doesn’t, there’s still upside. Tim Boyle and Brandon Allen are horrendous in regular-season settings, but in preseason against vanilla schemes? That’s a different ask. They're not being asked to read exotic coverages or diagnose disguised blitzes — they’re being asked to hit guys in space, which Atlanta’s defense tends to allow when it gets into its second and third layers.

We’re also not buying into the “grind-it-out” game script. The Falcons' depth at wideout and running back is far better than what they showed last week. Guys like J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Austin Mack are fighting for roster spots, and we already know Atlanta will throw the ball even with a lead — especially in games that don’t count. These are reps, not clock-killers

So what we’ve got here is an artificially low number based on one week’s worth of box scores, ignoring the fact that both teams rotated through their benches before the second quarter ended. Now we get more reps for the QBs who matter, more structure in the offensive sets, and defenses that showed nothing in terms of pressure or disguise.

The Titans gave up 26 to Tampa. The Falcons gave up 20 to Detroit. That’s 46 combined allowed — and now they’re facing one another with slightly more at stake in terms of offensive evaluation.

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