Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco +4 over Las Vegas

Sunday, August 18th – Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

4:00 PM ET. The market is leaning toward the Raiders here — because Geno Smith is expected to play and Pete Carroll said “everybody’s live.” That has folks assuming Vegas will get more first-string reps and therefore a more polished product. We’re not buying it.

Geno might get a drive or two, but don’t expect much more than the same scripted, low-risk series we saw from him in the preseason opener. He tossed just three passes before hitting the sideline. After that, it was Aidan O’Connell and Cam Miller — and neither guy did anything to instill confidence. O’Connell racked up 200 yards and a touchdown, but he threw two picks and looked as erratic as he did in last year’s regular season. Miller was worse. The Raiders’ margin isn’t wide.

Now let’s shift to San Francisco. Brock Purdy sat out Week 1, and the results were ugly — not a single touchdown from the QB trio of Mac Jones, Tanner Mordecai, and Carter Bradley. All three threw a pick. That’s the recency bias this number is built on.

That performance has Kyle Shanahan reconsidering his approach. He’s already said injuries are forcing some regulars into extended reps, and his history in Week 2 of the preseason suggests he knows how to manage this specific moment — he’s 5-2 straight up in the second week and has leaned into first-team action more than most.

Purdy might get a real series or two this week, which is all it takes to spark rhythm. More importantly, the backups should benefit from tempo and structure if the starter can set the tone. Shanahan’s scripted work is among the league’s best, and that kind of scaffolding gives this dog a floor.

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