Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

L.A. Rams +7 over L.A. Chargers

Saturday, August 17 – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

7:00 PM ET. Justin Herbert is expected to make his preseason debut. That’s the headline. The betting market is reacting to that, along with back-to-back preseason wins by the Chargers — but it’s still preseason, and this number is absurd.

Let’s be clear: Herbert is not playing the whole game. He’s likely getting one or two series. That’s it. Then it’s over to Trey Lance and Taylor Heinicke, which on paper might look like a QB advantage… but it’s not as lopsided as it seems.

Stetson Bennett is expected to carry the bulk of the load for the Rams again, and while he’s been maligned for a rough 2024 preseason, the reports out of camp suggest he’s turned a corner. Last week against Dallas, Bennett looked composed, throwing for 188 yards and two scores. The interception was ugly, but everything else was clean.

Bennett isn’t a star, but he’s been through a full year in McVay’s system and actually played significant preseason snaps — something none of the Chargers’ top two QBs can say in their current scheme. Herbert has never taken a preseason snap. Heinicke is new to the playbook. Lance has been effective in bursts, but still looks tentative as a pocket passer. The idea that the Chargers are going to just steamroll here is built on names, not reality.

Sean McVay doesn’t play starters — everyone knows that — and that’s priced in. But he also doesn’t care about public perception or preseason narratives. He lets his backups run the same offense they’ve repped all camp. That continuity matters.

Meanwhile, Herbert’s presence guarantees nothing. If anything, it tightens the window for the Chargers’ backups to find rhythm. The Chargers might win the first quarter — we’re betting the rest of the game.

As for the defenses, yes, the Rams are thin. But the Chargers have padded stats against teams that rolled over. The Rams won’t make this easy. They outgained Dallas last week and led nearly wire-to-wire. McVay may not chase the win, but his guys will stay competitive for four quarters.

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