Bookmaker   u42½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Chicago/Kansas City UNDER 42½

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO

8:20 PM ET. This is a bloated number for a preseason game between two teams who know exactly who they are — and exactly who they’re not risking.

We can start with Kansas City, who has no interest in putting Patrick Mahomes in harm’s way. You might see him out there for a series, maybe two, but that’s window dressing. The Chiefs are thin at wide receiver behind Rashee Rice (suspended) and Hollywood Brown (sidelined), and Andy Reid isn’t going to force the issue with backup QBs trying to push the ball downfield to guys who’ll be working warehouse jobs by September.

It’s Blaine Gabbert and Chris Oladokun running this thing, folks. The only thing worse than Gabbert airing it out is watching him try to.

On the other side, Chicago has its own version of the same playbook. Caleb Williams isn’t taking a snap, nor should he. The Bears invested everything into protecting their franchise pivot and have nothing to gain from exposing him in a meaningless August road game. That leaves Tyson Bagent and Brett Rypien to manage the offense, and neither has shown an ability to stretch the field or finish drives. The Bears have managed a total of 30 points through two preseason games, and it’s not getting better here.

What you’re left with is a vanilla script of short throws, empty possessions, clock-churning runs, and stalled red-zone trips. The defenses, even with backups, will dominate the pace.

This number opened around 41 and ticked up, likely because the market still believes these are "offensive" teams. They’re not. Not this week. Not with these lineups. Not in the heat at Arrowhead in a game nobody wants to finish with ice bags and crutches.

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