Posted September 2nd Prior to Week 1. Odds are subject to change

NFL Season Win Total

Buffalo Bills Under 11½ wins +140

The market keeps pricing Buffalo as if they’re untouchable in the regular season, but history suggests otherwise. The Bills have ridden unsustainable factors to reach their recent win totals, particularly in 2024 when they finished with 13 wins despite glaring cracks in their defensive profile. That team lived off a historic +24 turnover margin and unprecedented health along the offensive line. Neither of those conditions is repeatable, and regression is coming. The number is 11.5, which implies Buffalo is closer to a 12–13 win team again, but the makeup of this roster says otherwise.

Turnover luck is the biggest red flag. No team has hit +24 in over a decade, and when teams post margins that extreme, they universally fall back the next year — usually by double digits. The Bills themselves were neutral in turnover margin the two years prior. A defense that ranked 30th in red zone drives allowed last year didn’t suddenly get dominant; it just got bailed out with takeaways. When those dry up, and they will, you’re left with a defense that struggled to get stops and had opponents marching deep into their end at an alarming rate.

Health is another unsustainable edge. Buffalo’s entire offensive unit essentially played wire-to-wire, with almost every starter logging over 900 snaps. In a league where attrition is a constant, that level of fortune doesn’t repeat. The same group returns, but if they miss time, Buffalo’s depth will be exposed quickly. Regression on both fronts — turnovers and health — means the Bills are far more likely to fall into the 9–10 win range than push into the teens again.

The schedule isn’t doing them favors either. On paper, their opponents’ win totals rank soft, but the rest disparities are brutal. Buffalo will play five games at a rest disadvantage, including key AFC matchups late in the year when rest matters most. From Week 10 on, they’re -10 in net rest days, one of the worst stretches in the league. Combine that with their history of struggling against elite offenses in January, and the climb to 12 wins gets steeper than the market wants to admit.

Josh Allen is as good as advertised, and in fact, the data shows he’s been the most efficient postseason quarterback in losses. The problem isn’t him. It’s that Sean McDermott’s defense consistently folds when challenged by elite opponents. Buffalo spent all offseason pouring resources into that side of the ball, but new names alone don’t guarantee better execution or coaching. Until proven otherwise, the burden will fall on Allen to drag them to the finish line every single week. That’s not the recipe for repeating a 13-win season.

The Bills have won a lot of regular season games the past five years, but their profile screams regression. Unsustainable turnover fortune, unrealistic health, and a tough late-season schedule all set them up to come in well under the market expectation. Buffalo can still be a playoff team, but asking them to hit 12 wins again is a stretch. At +140, the Under 11.5 wins is dripping with value.

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