Posted September 2nd Prior to Week 1. Odds are subject to change

NFL Season Win Total

Las Vegas Raiders Under 6½ wins +115

Six and a half wins might not look like a mountain, but it’s still a hurdle the Raiders are not built to clear. Oddsmakers have to hang a number somewhere, and in this case, they’ve left the door open for us to step in. This total assumes the Raiders aren't going to be a total dumpster fire — a quality that Las Vegas has not shown in years.

Antonio Pierce was handed the job on the back of a “feel-good” 2023 run. The truth is, that 8-9 finish was a mirage built on health, turnover luck, and one of the friendliest schedules in the league. Once those breaks dried up in 2024, so did the wins. The Raiders bottomed out, cycled through another GM, another staff, and hit reset yet again.

Now Pete Carroll steps in with Chip Kelly calling plays, Geno Smith under center, and rookie Ashton Jeanty in the backfield. On the surface, those are upgrades. Geno is more accurate than anything Las Vegas has trotted out in years, and Jeanty might finally give them a functional run game. The offense is at least interesting again, with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers joined by burner rookie Dont’e Thornton Jr.

That’s the good news. The bad news is everything else.

This secondary is the worst in football — a patchwork unit that was consistently torched last year and has not meaningfully improved. The defensive line outside of Quinnen Williams is a revolving door, and depth is non-existent. Chip Kelly’s system may generate some fireworks, but it won’t mask a defense that bleeds big plays.

Then there’s the schedule. The Raiders rank dead last in net rest, with five games where they’ll be playing on fewer days’ prep than their opponent. They draw multiple short-week road trips, and the one time they have a rest advantage, it’s a single day before a December road game in Philadelphia. That is a scheduling gauntlet even good teams struggle to navigate.

This number assumes Geno and Jeanty spark a turnaround, that Chip Kelly’s transition to the NFL is smooth, and that a historically bad defense suddenly holds its ground. That’s a lot of wishful thinking. Even if the offense pops, the path to seven wins requires everything breaking right — health, luck, close games, and road spots. The Raiders have shown us over and over again they don’t cash those tickets.

Six and a half is too high. We’re fading it.

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