Posted September 2nd Prior to Week 1. Odds are subject to change

NFL Season Win Total

Baltimore Ravens Under 11½ +100

The market is telling you Baltimore is set up for another dominant season. Eleven and a half wins implies this team will cruise through the AFC like it’s on rails, but there are red flags everywhere if you care to look beyond the highlight reels.

The Ravens were the healthiest team in the NFL last year, had the friendliest rest schedule in league history, and Lamar Jackson played the best football of his career. They still didn’t make it past the Divisional Round. When everything breaks perfectly and you still come up short, what happens when the variables swing the other way?

That’s the setup in 2025. Baltimore’s rest advantage flips from +3 games to -1. Their bye moves from Week 14 to Week 7. Six of their final 10 are on the road. The opening month is brutal — Bills, Browns, Chiefs, Lions, Rams, and Texans. Even if the Ravens are elite, that stretch could bury their win-total hopes early.

There’s also the “close-game problem.” Baltimore is 23-24 in one-score games since 2020. That mediocrity isn’t variance anymore, it’s a pattern. Contrast that with divisional rival Pittsburgh, who’s 37-15 in the same spot. Winning the coin-flip games is how you stack 12 or 13 wins, and the Ravens simply haven’t shown they can do it.

Then there’s the man-blitz issue. It’s no secret anymore. Every sharp defensive coordinator cranks up the pressure in January because it consistently works. Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh — they all lean on the same formula. Until Baltimore solves it, their ceiling will remain capped.

Now toss in the penalties, the field-goal variance, and the transition to a rookie kicker, and you’ve got a profile that screams volatility. Baltimore is still a playoff team on talent alone, but 12 wins requires near-flawless execution, and this group hasn’t earned that trust.

The market is pricing the Ravens as if last year’s favorable circumstances will repeat. They won’t.

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