Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Dallas +8 -110 over Philadelphia

8:-20 PM ET. The market has Philadelphia as if nothing has changed — as if losing key defensive pieces, swapping coordinators, and walking around with the heaviest belt in football hasn’t altered their profile one bit. The Eagles are being priced like the machine they were in their title run, but that’s a dangerous assumption to carry into Week 1.

Yes, Jalen Hurts has his weapons healthy. Yes, Saquon Barkley behind that offensive line is a terrifying thought. The “tush push” still exists, and on paper, this looks like the most complete offense in football. That’s the sales pitch, and oddsmakers have bought it.

We’re not as convinced.

Dallas comes in as an 8½-point underdog, and while Micah Parsons’ absence is significant, the line adjustment feels like an overreaction. This is still a Cowboys defense with speed on the back end and a scheme that can make quarterbacks uncomfortable in other ways. More importantly, this is a Dallas offense that is poised to surprise.

Dak Prescott has weapons. CeeDee Lamb is elite underneath, George Pickens brings the downfield juice, and Brian Schottenheimer is going to throw the ball far more than his reputation suggests. With one of the weakest RB rooms in the league, the Cowboys have no choice but to lean on Dak and his receivers — and that’s not a bad plan.

Philadelphia’s defense, meanwhile, is not the same unit. Milton Williams and Josh Sweat are gone, Brandon Graham retired, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson bolted. Fangio’s scheme is sound, but it’s plug-and-play only to a point. Continuity matters, and this group is going to need reps before it looks like the top-five defense it’s priced as right now.

Then there’s the hidden volatility: the new kickoff rules. Dallas happens to have one of the league’s best return men in KaVontae Turpin, a field-flipper who could change this game with one burst. If this turns into a higher-possession, shorter-field contest — which those rules suggest it will — that makes these inflated points even more appealing.

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