Posted Friday at 12:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 1

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 7

Atlanta +2 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM ET. The market is all over Tampa Bay because “defending NFC South champs” sounds nice and their offense looks shiny on paper. Hold your horses. Baker Mayfield had a solid 2024, sure, and Tristan Wirfs is a beast, but this is Week 1, and we’ve seen plenty of high-priced, high-odds units stumble right out of the gate.

Atlanta struggled to pressure quarterbacks last year — ranking near the bottom in almost every pass-rush metric — but they added Leonard Floyd and return a young core that should continue developing. Michael Penix Jr. is healthy, experienced, and ready to sling the ball to his playmakers in space. The Falcons can move the chains on the ground and through quick passes, which should keep Tampa Bay’s secondary on its heels.

The Bucs’ offense is strong, but they aren’t perfect. Their pass rush is far from elite, and a road opener in Atlanta isn’t a gimme. This line is very telling considering the Buccs’ name recognition and last year’s division crown. Atlanta is getting points at home — with a QB who has built chemistry with his skill players — and that’s exactly the kind of value the market tends to miss. Recommendation: Atlanta +2

Cincinnati -5 over Cleveland

1:00 PM ET. Nobody is forgetting what happened last September. The Bengals were the biggest favorite of Week 1, laying more than a touchdown at home to New England, and they lost outright. That burned plenty of bankrolls and set the tone for a season where Cincinnati never really found its footing until late. Fast forward a year and you can already hear the whispers: divisional dog, Week 1, hold your nose and take the points. Not us.

Cleveland is being propped up here like it has answers, but this is still a bottom-tier roster. The Browns went 4-13 against the spread last year and they’re sending 40-year-old Joe Flacco out for the opener. There isn’t a “who’s who” of playmakers on either side of the ball, just a collection of spare parts with no ceiling. You’re not cashing tickets backing this lot.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, closed 2024 looking like the Bengals again. They won five straight to end the year, covering four of them, and they’ve now won and covered three straight against Cleveland, four of the past five overall. Joe Burrow plus Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown remains one of the most dangerous offensive groups in football. If you’re backing the Browns here, you’re essentially betting that Burrow doesn’t put points on the board. That’s not a wager we’re interested in making.

Yes, the Bengals’ defense is still suspect. Yes, they’ve done little to address it outside of swapping coordinators. Those holes will matter later, but not here. Not against a Browns team with Flacco at the wheel and very few explosive weapons. Cincinnati can get away with its deficiencies because its offense is built to win track meets. Cleveland doesn’t have the horses to keep up. Recommendation: Cincinnati -5

Seattle +2½ over San Francisco

4:05 PM ET. The 49ers can’t possibly be as bad as they were last year. Says who? That’s the narrative driving this number, and it’s a lazy one. San Francisco is coming off a 6-11 season in which they were one of the biggest money-burners in the NFL (5-12 ATS, with just one cover in their final nine). That wasn’t a fluke. It was a broken team with no depth, an aging roster, and a quarterback situation that gave them no margin for error. Fast forward to 2025, and already the injury bug has sunk its teeth into this team again. Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, and George Kittle are healthy today, but how long does anyone really believe that lasts? Brandon Aiyuk is already out, Jauan Jennings is iffy, and suddenly this offense is going to hum just because the calendar flipped? We’re not buying it.

Seattle, on the other hand, is being sold as a one-hit wonder despite a 10-7 finish last year and a late-season surge that nearly got them into the playoffs. The Seahawks’ “collapse” narrative was built on tiebreakers and a couple of home hiccups, not on them being some fraud. This is a young, ascending roster with real juice. Sam Darnold stepping in for Geno Smith might spook the market, but what Darnold did in Minnesota last year (4,300+ yards, 35 TDs) wasn’t smoke and mirrors. He’s finally found a system that works, and now he inherits a receiving corps with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp that’s as good as anything he had with the Vikings.

The market loves to lean on historical trends in divisional games, and yes, the Niners have owned Seattle for stretches. That matters less here. What matters is San Francisco laying road chalk with a paper-thin roster, a quarterback who still hasn’t proven he can win without perfect conditions, and a defense that fell off a cliff last year. Recommendation: Seattle +2½

Detroit Lions +2 at Green Bay

4:25 PM ET. Week 1 in the NFC North is never easy, and the Lions are kicking off the 2025 season in one of the toughest spots possible: Lambeau Field. Oddsmakers are projecting regression for Detroit after a 15-win campaign, but that’s exactly why we see value in Dan Campbell’s Lions.

Detroit returns most of its personnel from last year’s NFC North championship squad. Sure, the retirements of Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow and the departures of coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn will be felt, but the defense gets a huge boost with a healthy Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson was the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year before going down in Week 6 last season, and his presence back on the edge changes the dynamic for Green Bay’s offensive line.

The Packers have a talented quarterback in Jordan Love, but the receiving corps is noticeably thin compared to the Lions’ weapons. Green Bay’s defense, which made headlines with splash plays in 2024, struggled consistently on a down-to-down basis against the pass. Trading for Micah Parsons was supposed to be a game-changer for the Packers’ front seven, but he’s coming off a joint sprain, adjusting to a new system, and likely won’t be 100%. That makes the Packers’ defensive upgrade more theoretical than practical in Week 1.

History is trending in Detroit’s favor, too. Since January 2022, the Lions are 6-1 straight-up and 5-2 against the spread in this NFC North clash. The total has consistently stayed under in this series, and with Jordan Love returning from thumb surgery, timing and rhythm on handoffs and passing plays are potential liabilities early in the season.

On offense, the Lions are stable. John Morton takes over the passing game after Ben Johnson’s departure, but continuity is preserved with a mostly intact roster. Defensively, Kelvin Sheppard was promoted from within, keeping stability on that side of the ball as well. Detroit is built to withstand adversity and keep games close, even in hostile environments. Recommendation: Detroit +2

Houston +3 over L.A. Rams

4:25 PM ET. The Rams are being treated like Matthew Stafford is still 28 and Davante Adams is still elite. Neither is true. Stafford is being held together with sticky tack and popsicle sticks. He’s missed more time than he’s played over the past three years and spent most of this camp on the sideline. Every hit he takes comes with the fear it’ll be his last. That’s not the kind of QB we want to spot a price with.

As for Adams, he’s now 32 years old and on his third team in less than 12 months. That’s not the résumé of a difference-maker, that’s the résumé of a name teams trade for to sell jerseys. Pairing him with Puka Nacua sounds good on paper, but it requires Stafford to stand upright long enough to make it matter. Behind this offensive line, that’s a big if. We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that Stafford’s favorite target, Cooper Kupp, is not longer in LA, LA Land after the Rams dumped him in favor of Adams, who had never had to play second fiddle.

Houston, meanwhile, doesn’t need to be spectacular to cover this number. C.J. Stroud took his lumps last year behind a patchwork line, but he still protects the football, and this defense is among the best in the league. Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, and Derek Stingley Jr. headline a unit that’s built to travel. They don’t have to hang 30 points here. They just need to make Stafford uncomfortable — which is inevitable. Recommendation: Houston +3