Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City / L.A. Chargers Under 47½

Arena Corinthians – São Paulo, Brazil

8:00 PM ET. Let the market drool over Mahomes and Herbert. Let it circle Kelce’s name and convince itself that points are inevitable. We’ll zig the other way. The truth is both these offenses are behind schedule, and this number asks for fireworks when there may not be any.Start with the Chargers. Greg Roman’s run-heavy scheme was already a plodding fit for Herbert, and now Najee Harris is trying to get up to speed after a Fourth of July fireworks mishap (you can’t make this stuff up). He just got cleared for contact and hasn’t gone through camp. That leaves rookie Omarion Hampton as the shiny piece, but Week 1 on foreign soil isn’t the most likely setting for him to smash through. This offense is green, disjointed, and reliant on running the ball into stacked boxes.

On the other side, Kansas City’s passing attack is missing Rashee Rice, possibly Jalen Royals, and has Hollywood Brown running routes at half speed while he works into shape. Mahomes is still Mahomes, but asking him to carry an undermanned group in muggy São Paulo conditions on a chopped-up pitch feels like wish-casting. The Chiefs can lean on their defense, which is still nasty, and shorten the game with Isiah Pacheco.

Then there’s the setting. We’d be remiss not to mention the surface at Arena Corinthians, which was atrocious for last year’s Brazil game. Sloppy grass slows down offenses and turns drives into field position grinds. Defenses often have the edge in Week 1 anyway, and this matchup has already delivered totals of 36, 27, and 25 points across their last three meetings. Points will be at a premium here, not a guarantee.

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