Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tennessee +8½ over Denver

Empower Field at Mile High

4:05 PM ET. The only question in this Week 1 tilt isn’t whether Tennessee can compete, it’s how many points is too many points to lay with the Orange and Blue. The market has pushed Denver into inflated territory here, and we’re not interested in spotting more than a touchdown with a team still sorting out its offensive identity.

Tennessee went 2-15 against the spread last year, the worst mark of any NFL team since point spreads have been tracked. That disaster has the market convinced this is a hopeless cause. We’re not buying it. Pop quiz: after the Eagles and Texans, who allowed the fewest yards per game last season? The answer is Tennessee, not Denver. The Titans finished third in the NFL, and they did it while dealing with a -16 turnover margin that repeatedly left their defense in impossible situations. That unit is average-to-good in almost every metric and could take another step forward if the offense stops putting it in the fire every Sunday.

Cam Ward making his debut at altitude is not the ideal recipe for points, but we’re not asking the rookie to win the game, we’re asking him to keep it inside a number. Breece Hall gashed Denver’s defense last year, and while Tennessee doesn’t have Hall, it does have a defense that travels and a pace of play that shortens games. The Titans have also won and covered the last two meetings in this series, and the last four have all stayed under the number. That combination points to value in a lower-scoring grinder.

As for Denver, Bo Nix will be asked to manage the offense while Sean Payton tries to manufacture rhythm in a new rushing attack. The Broncos finished in the bottom half of the league in most rushing metrics last year and are now rolling out J.K. Dobbins and rookie R.J. Harvey. That’s not the type of backfield you trust to build an 8-point margin. Denver’s defense is outstanding, no question, but it’s also being priced as if the offense will cash in every short field. That’s a leap.

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