Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore -1 at Buffalo

Highmark Stadium - Orchard Park, NY

8:20 PM ET. Since 2018, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have traded blows with Baltimore and Buffalo splitting six meetings right down the middle, but don’t let that symmetry fool you into thinking the Bills are some model of consistency. Last season, Buffalo’s entire résumé was built on a lucky horseshoe wedged firmly up their backside: a +24 turnover margin that was downright cartoonish. They lost only two fumbles all year while recovering sixteen from opponents—numbers that scream “lottery ticket” more than “defensive genius.” Anyone who thinks that kind of fortune carries over year to year hasn’t been around this league very long. The law of regression doesn’t knock politely; it kicks down the door, and Buffalo’s defense—already ranked 25th in yards per play allowed—should be first in line. Betting markets love to pretend that Josh Allen’s hero ball erases all sins, but value players know you don’t pay a premium for last year’s mirage.

On the other side, Baltimore brings something Buffalo simply doesn’t: stability. The Ravens don’t rely on divine fumble recovery percentages to survive. They line up, punch you in the mouth, and their defense actually gets off the field without begging the turnover gods for charity. Buffalo’s preseason foreshadowed the trouble—giving up over 30 points per game to the Bears, Bucs, and Giants, like some three-week live-action cautionary tale. And while Bills Mafia will drown themselves in blue light to convince you “this year is different,” the cracks are obvious: key defenders suspended, patchwork secondary, and a coaching staff better known for January meltdowns than postseason miracles. Strip away the turnover luck, and you’re left with a defense that leaks like a folding table left out in Orchard Park rain. That’s where the value sits: fading the luck-driven darling and backing the Ravens, a team that doesn’t need a slot machine jackpot in the turnover column to justify its existence.

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