Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New York Jets +140 over Pittsburgh

MetLife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ

1:00 PM ET. The story being fed this week is the “Aaron Rodgers revenge game.” You’ll hear it on every broadcast, see it splashed across every headline, and watch the cameras zoom in on Rodgers as if the fate of civilization hangs on how he handles facing his old team. It’s media hype, nothing more. The market laps it up because it’s an easy narrative to sell, which conveniently inflates the Steelers’ price here.

We’re not buying it. Rodgers is 41, his best football is behind him, and Pittsburgh is now tying its wagon to a quarterback who is far closer to his exit than his prime. This whole “A-Rog will show the Jets what they’re missing” angle doesn’t hold up and those preaching that narrative are higher than he is.

The Jets, meanwhile, are a buy-low team. They lost some defensive starters, sure, but this was a top-5 stop unit in both yards per game and yards per play last year, all while getting zero support from the other side of the ball. Aaron Glenn has a good foundation in place, and New York’s defense isn’t falling off a cliff. Offensively, Justin Fields still has to prove he’s a capable NFL starter, but he doesn’t need to be spectacular. With Breece Hall in the backfield and Garrett Wilson stretching defenses, Fields has playmakers to lean on. Hall alone ripped 141 yards off this Pittsburgh defense last year on just 18 touches.

The Steelers are still what they were in 2024: a team that survives on defense and little else. That works when the market undervalues them as home underdogs. It’s a lot less appealing when they’re priced as a favorite based on sentiment and storylines with another washed up QB under center. The media and market are drunk on Rodgers-in-black-and-gold headlines. We’re not drinking the Kool-Aid. Jets outright

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