Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Indianapolis -110 over Miami

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

1:00 PM ET. Indianapolis has quietly owned Miami, winning four of the last five, and last year’s 16–10 grinder was a perfect example. That one doesn’t even count for much because Tua was in street clothes and Anthony Richardson—who’s now holding a clipboard—was under center for the Colts. What does matter is the Colts’ coach. Shane Steichen isn’t some vanilla play-caller; he’s a proven QB whisperer who turned Justin Herbert into a record-breaking Rookie of the Year and then steered Jalen Hurts all the way to a Super Bowl while nearly swiping an MVP trophy. If there’s one guy you want overseeing an offense and coaxing competence out of Daniel Jones, it’s Steichen. His track record screams upside, and that’s exactly what we’re hunting—value that the market hasn’t priced in yet.

Meanwhile, Miami’s summer looked like a bad reality show: a revolving door of injuries, their “star” receiver sidelined, and at one point their entire backfield was reduced to a rookie. Tyreek, Achane, Wright, even Ashtyn Davis—every one of them spent preseason rehabbing something instead of preparing. That’s not depth, that’s duct tape. And this defense? Projected bottom-tier with all the bite of a stuffed dolphin at SeaWorld. Let’s call it what it is: pure rat shit. People love to buy the Miami hype every year like it’s some beachfront timeshare, but we’ll happily fade that noise and take the undervalued side with a proven quarterback-developer running the show.

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