Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Las Vegas +2½ over New England

Gillette Stadium - Foxboro, MA

1:00 PM ET. Yes, we’re down on the Raiders this season. Pete Carroll’s squad isn’t going to contend for the AFC West crown, and the offense is still a work in progress, but in this spot? They’re the value play.

The Patriots were 30th in points per game and 30th in red-zone efficiency last year — dead last in both categories. Yet here they are favored in Week 1 simply because Mike Vrabel is in the building and Drake Maye exists. Heritage pricing at its finest. Maye doesn’t have a “who’s who” of weapons, and Josh McDaniels’ offense is still a work-in-progress. Expect clock-churning runs, red-zone field goals, and a familiar sense of mediocrity.

Vegas, meanwhile, has the pieces to exploit that. Geno Smith manages games, rookie Ashton Jeanty gives them a weapon capable of flipping the field, and Carroll’s defense will hit you from snap one. Chip Kelly can get Jeanty in space, force New England to defend the full field, and make the Pats earn every point.

We’re being told the Raiders “need time to gel,” but the Patriots are running back the league’s worst offense and somehow getting chalk. That’s backward logic, and it’s why we’re taking the points.

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