Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

N.Y. Giants +6 over Washington

Northwest Stadium – Landover, MD

1:00 PM ET. The market is screaming at us here. Washington is the “it” team — the breakout darling that went 12-5, reached the NFC title game, and supposedly found their quarterback of the future in Jayden Daniels. New York, meanwhile, won three games last season and looked every bit as dreadful as their record suggested. So why in the world are the Commanders spotting only six points at home?

That number doesn’t pass the sniff test. If Washington is the juggernaut they’re priced as in futures markets, and the Giants are the same pathetic outfit from last year, shouldn’t this line be -9½ or -10? Oddsmakers know what they’re doing. They aren’t in the business of giving away money, and this short spread is telling us that the gap between these two isn’t nearly as wide as the public narrative suggests.

Washington’s 12 wins last year were built on razor-thin margins. Eight came by a single score, including both meetings with the Giants. Now they’re being asked to win by margin in a divisional game against a New York team that upgraded its quarterback, bolstered its defense, and still has playmakers like Malik Nabers who can flip a game script in one snap.

If Washington was truly the next big thing, this line would reflect it. Instead, it’s begging us to think the Commanders are a cheap price. We’re not taking the bait.

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