Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Green Bay -3½ +100 over Washington

8:15 PM ET. The Commanders are the shiny object this week. They’ve lost only once since Thanksgiving, they outgained the Giants by three yards per play, and the market can’t stop gushing over Jayden Daniels throwing to Deebo Samuel. Cute story. Problem is, football isn’t played on paper or in highlight reels.

This Washington outfit has been feasting on cupcakes. Beat up the Giants? Please. The Commanders could’ve shown up in flip-flops and still escaped with a win against that mess. Daniels’ box score looks good, but most of it came with New York blowing coverages and missing tackles. That won’t fly against Green Bay, where LaFleur has this team laser-focused every September. Since 2019, the Packers are 16-3 ATS in the first three weeks of the year, and 8-0 ATS at home. That’s not variance. That’s a coach who has his team locked and loaded while the rest of the league is still waking up.

Green Bay’s smackdown of Detroit wasn’t smoke. They dominated both lines, Jordan Love looked composed, and their defense suffocated everything the Lions tried. You can argue about where Detroit is trending, but you can’t argue about how prepared Green Bay was. That’s the difference between a real team and a fraud propped up by narrative.

The market looks at Washington’s run and thinks, “Why not grab the points?” Because the Commanders are a trap. They’re living off variance, off weak competition, off the mirage that Jayden Daniels has suddenly turned into a franchise QB in two weeks. That kind of smoke clears fast when you walk into Lambeau Field.

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