Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay +3½ -105 over Cincinnati

1:00 PM EST. If you wanted to design a Week 1 favorite that practically begs the public to bet it, Cincinnati would be a pretty good place to start. Joe Burrow is back, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are waiting for him, the Bengals supposedly fixed their defense, and they're at home against a Tampa Bay team that completely collapsed down the stretch last season. The Buccaneers started 6-2 and then lost seven of their final nine games. Mike Evans is gone. Cincinnati finished last year going in the opposite direction and enters this season with all kinds of optimism. Bengals -3½. What's not to like? Apparently nothing, because finding somebody eager to bet Tampa Bay this week is like trying to find a salad at a tailgate party

That's exactly why we're taking the Buccaneers. Forget all the garbage about Cincinnati being 5-0 against this division or Tampa being 0-5 against that division. Those numbers couldn't interest us less. We're not handicapping what happened three years ago with different players in different circumstances. We're handicapping today's price and today's perception, and Cincinnati is carrying an enormous amount of positive perception into this opener. Everybody knows Burrow. Everybody knows Chase. Everybody expects the Bengals offense to be outstanding. Everybody has also spent the offseason hearing that Cincinnati rebuilt the defense that held them back last year. Great. If everybody already knows the story, who exactly hasn't had an opportunity to bet it?

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has become extremely easy to dismiss. Baker Mayfield lost Mike Evans, he's working with another new play-caller and the Buccaneers couldn't buy a win during the second half of last season. But Baker can still sling it, Chris Godwin is still around, Bucky Irving gives this offense another legitimate weapon and Tampa isn't showing up here with a bunch of guys they found outside Home Depot on Saturday morning. This is still an NFL team with enough offensive talent to trade punches with Cincinnati. More importantly, we're getting +3½, which means we're crossing the most important number in NFL betting. We don't need Tampa Bay to be better than Cincinnati for the next four months. We need them to be competitive for three hours.

The Bengals may very well be as good as advertised. They may win the AFC North and Burrow may have an MVP-caliber season. None of that means they're the right wager here. Week 1 is where preseason opinions finally collide with reality, and Cincinnati enters with expectations through the roof while Tampa Bay enters with virtually nobody interested in owning them. That's the type of discrepancy we're looking for. We're not betting against Joe Burrow. We're betting against the price attached to Joe Burrow and all the optimism surrounding Cincinnati. Give us the ugly side, give us the hook and let everyone else line up to lay points with the team they're absolutely certain is better.

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