Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay +100 over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. We often refer to the point spread as the great equalizer. Its entire purpose is to take two unequal teams and create something close to a 50-50 proposition. From there, our job is to identify where perception, recency bias and market overreaction have pushed that number too far. Every once in a while, the market gets stretched so far in one direction that the team nobody wants becomes the most interesting team on the board.

Welcome to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers haven't covered a point spread since October 26 of last year. That's 11 consecutive games without cashing an ATS ticket, an almost incomprehensible run in a market specifically designed to prevent exactly that from happening. Anyone blindly fading Tampa Bay has been walking to the window week after week after week. Maybe they cash again Sunday. Nothing is guaranteed. But if you're arriving now to bet against Tampa Bay, you're showing up to the party after everybody else has already eaten, drank the good booze and taken the furniture home. You're not early. You're very fucking late.

Oddsmakers aren't in the business of allowing one side to cash indefinitely without making an adjustment. Tampa Bay's ineptitude has been priced into the market, then priced in again, and probably priced in once more for good measure. The Bucs are 0-2, nobody wants them, and an 11-game ATS losing streak has made them radioactive. That's precisely why we're interested. In this spot, Tampa Bay shouldn't be getting points at home. Our number would have the Buccaneers favored by approximately a field goal, perhaps slightly more, yet the market has Minnesota a small choice.

Minnesota has landed on the exact opposite end of the perception spectrum. The Vikings are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 against the spread, but those results look considerably prettier than the underlying circumstances. They escaped against a bad Green Bay team and then caught Chicago after the Bears lost their starting quarterback. Two wins, two covers, and suddenly Minnesota is being asked to lay road points against a team the entire market has learned to hate. That's how prices get distorted.

The Vikings are being rewarded for what bettors just watched while Tampa Bay is being punished for nearly a year's worth of burned tickets. The point spread may be the great equalizer, but perception creates the opportunity. Everyone has jumped off Tampa Bay. That's exactly when we're jumping on.

 Sportsinteraction