Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Orleans +130 over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. If there's a more overvalued team in the NFL right now than the Minnesota Vikings, we'd love to know who it is. Minnesota is 4-0, the defense is getting rave reviews, Brian Flores is being treated like a defensive genius, and the betting public is beginning to believe the Vikings are legitimate contenders. Four victories, zero losses. What could possibly be wrong with that? Plenty.

Minnesota might be the least convincing undefeated team in football. The Vikings have somehow managed to win four games while producing an offense that looks like it was assembled from spare parts at a garage sale. They've scored just two offensive touchdowns over their last three games, relying on their defense, kicking game and a remarkable collection of fortunate circumstances to keep that perfect record intact.

Let's examine those four victories before we start clearing space for another Lombardi Trophy. In Week 1, Minnesota trailed Green Bay for most of the afternoon and appeared headed for defeat before escaping with a late comeback. Against Chicago, the Vikings managed a thrilling 9-3 victory after the Bears lost their quarterback. Then came Tampa Bay, a dreadful football team forced to start a rookie quarterback. Last week, Minnesota survived Miami 15-10 in another game that could easily have gone the other way.

That's four victories, but hardly four performances that scream championship contender. Change a handful of plays and this team could be sitting at 0-4 instead of 4-0. That's not an exaggeration about the thin margins involved. Minnesota has been living dangerously for a month, and the market is rewarding the Vikings as though they've been steamrolling opponents.

The biggest issue remains quarterback play. Minnesota has an excellent defense, but the Vikings are trying to win football games without a dependable offense. Their quarterbacks have contributed very little, and while Flores deserves credit for what his defense has accomplished, asking that unit to carry the entire operation every Sunday is not a sustainable formula.

Eventually, somebody is going to make Minnesota score points to win a game. What happens then?

Now consider the other side of this matchup.

New Orleans is coming off an absolutely humiliating Monday night performance against Atlanta. The Saints were hammered 45-24, their defense was shredded, and whatever remaining enthusiasm existed for this team disappeared somewhere around halftime. The Saints are 1-3, their head coach is under fire, and the local media has plenty of ammunition.

In other words, New Orleans couldn't be much less attractive to the average bettor.

Perfect.

This is one of our favorite types of situations: a team coming off an embarrassing nationally televised loss facing an undefeated opponent whose record looks considerably better than its actual performances. The public sees Minnesota at 4-0 and New Orleans at 1-3 and wonders why the Vikings aren't favored by considerably more. That's precisely the point.

New Orleans has offensive problems of its own, particularly with the running game, but Tyler Shough and Chris Olave have demonstrated that the Saints can move the football through the air. Shough has thrown for more than 1,200 yards with nine touchdowns, while Olave has already collected 35 receptions for 491 yards. Unlike Minnesota, New Orleans has shown the ability to generate offense without requiring its defense to perform miracles.

There's also a scheduling consideration. This will be Minnesota's third road game in four weeks, and the Vikings return home next week to face Indianapolis. That's a demanding stretch for a team whose victories have required considerable physical and emotional investment. New Orleans, meanwhile, is returning home after getting embarrassed in prime time, with an opportunity to respond in front of its own fans.

The Saints are certainly no bargain on the basis of their recent performances. Their defense has been atrocious, and nobody is confusing them with a Super Bowl contender. But that's already reflected in the price. Minnesota's weaknesses, on the other hand, are being disguised by an undefeated record. That's the difference between evaluating teams and evaluating betting lines.

The Vikings have been getting every bounce, every break and just enough scoring to escape with victories. The Saints have been getting buried in criticism. One team's stock is approaching its ceiling, while the other's has been beaten into the ground.

Minnesota's defense is legitimate. Its 4-0 record is legitimate. But the idea that this is a complete football team deserving of unquestioned respect is anything but legitimate.

The Saints are being priced against Minnesota's record rather than Minnesota's actual level of play, and that's an opportunity worth taking. New Orleans +2½ is one of our favorite plays on the board. The Vikings' undefeated record is impressive on paper, but paper doesn't play football.

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