Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
N.Y. Jets -2½ -110 over Cleveland
1:00 PM EST. Ladies and gentlemen, the Cleveland Browns bandwagon is officially accepting passengers. Get your tickets, grab a seat and enjoy the ride. Apparently, the Browns have become one of the NFL's hottest attractions. Cleveland's stock hasn't been this high since Brian Sipe was throwing passes, and there are people actually lining up to bet on the Browns.
The Cleveland Browns! We're talking about the same franchise that has spent the better part of three decades making losing look like an Olympic sport.
But give credit where it's due. Cleveland has been playing better football, and last week's victory over Pittsburgh has everyone suddenly treating the Browns like they've discovered the secret to winning. The defense has shown some life, the team is competing, and the betting public is beginning to believe that Cleveland might actually be respectable.
Careful, folks. That's usually when the trapdoor opens.
There's nothing wrong with recognizing improvement, but there's a big difference between identifying a team before its stock rises and jumping aboard after everybody else has already bought tickets. If you're backing Cleveland now, you might still cash, but you're arriving awfully late to the party. The cheap seats are gone, the drinks are watered down, and the band is already packing up.
Meanwhile, there's the New York Jets.
Nobody wants the Jets. Nobody trusts the Jets. And the idea of actually laying points with the Jets is enough to make a grown man consider switching to professional bowling.
New York has been dreadful, and last week's loss to Chicago did nothing to improve its reputation. The Jets were pushed around, surrendered nearly 500 yards and looked like a team that would struggle to organize a two-car funeral.
So why are the Jets favored?
That's the question worth asking.
Cleveland is coming off an impressive victory over Pittsburgh, while New York is coming off another embarrassing performance. The Browns are gaining respect, the Jets are losing whatever little respect they had left, and yet the oddsmakers are asking New York to lay 2½ points. If the Browns are suddenly such a wonderful football team, why aren't they favored?
This is the type of number that makes bettors uncomfortable, and that's exactly what attracts us to it. The public sees Cleveland's improvement and New York's incompetence and naturally gravitates toward the Browns. Getting points with the team that looks better seems like a gift but the NFL isn't in the business of handing out gifts. Neither are the sportsbooks.
We're in the buy-low, sell-high business, and this matchup checks both boxes. Cleveland's stock is soaring, while the Jets' stock is somewhere beneath the basement, possibly next to Jimmy Hoffa.
We're not suggesting New York has suddenly become a good football team. The Jets have enough problems to keep a team of psychiatrists employed until Christmas. But the price is what matters, and this is an opportunity to back an extremely unpopular home favorite against an opponent whose recent success has attracted plenty of attention.
The Browns might continue their resurgence. They might even prove that this isn't another false dawn in Cleveland, where false dawns have become something of a municipal tradition but buying Cleveland after the market has already discovered the Browns isn't nearly as appealing as it was a couple of weeks ago. Sometimes the best wager is the one that makes you want to wash your hands afterward and laying points with the New York Jets certainly qualifies.
Our Pick
N.Y. Jets -2½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)