Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Indianapolis +6½ -102 over Minnesota 

1:00 PM EST. Watch the total, because the total is telling you the whole story: it opened 46.5–47.5 and has crashed to 41.5, the biggest move on the Week 7 board. Minnesota (5-0) wins grinders — 15-10 and 23-13 finals this season, the Under 4-1 in its games — and grinders are where +6.5 goes to thrive . ESPN's model makes the Vikings only a 3.9-point favorite, which means you're being handed 2.6 points of cushion against the number for free.

The Colts' path is Jonathan Taylor and a short game. Taylor takes 22.8 touches a week with an 85% backfield share — 492 yards and seven touchdowns — and every handoff is one less snap for a Minnesota offense that isn't exactly a fireworks show: Kyler Murray (yes, Minnesota's quarterback is Kyler Murray in this timeline) has thrown two touchdown passes in four starts, and Justin Jefferson is nursing an ankle he picked up before the bye. Indianapolis was a Taylor fumble, a Daniel Jones red-zone interception and a blocked punt from beating Tennessee last week; the losses are self-inflicted, not a talent gap.

Self-inflicted is still a problem, though, and here's the rest of it: Jones has been dreadful, Minnesota's Brian Flores is the worst possible matchup for him, Indy is missing Alec Pierce (IR) with Tyler Warren trending out and Sauce Gardner doubtful, the Colts have lost seven straight on the road, and the front office fired the GM this week. Oh, and Minnesota is rested off its bye at home. All true — and all baked into a number that's still two points too fat for a 41.5-total game.

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