Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Fleetwood Town +175 (To Win in Full Time) over Walsall

ABERDEEN +100 (To Win in Full Time) over Livingston

Pittodrie Stadium – Aberdeen, Scotland

Scottish Premiership

10:00 PM ET. Everything on paper says Aberdeen is a fade. They’re bottom of the table, winless, and fresh off losing to newly promoted Falkirk at home. Their lone point all season keeps them in the basement. Livingston, meanwhile, has four points, a win over Falkirk, and at least looks like a side trending upward.

So why is Aberdeen being lined as the strongest favorite they’ve been all year? At even money in full time, the market is telling us this is not the same Dons side that stumbled through August. Something different is expected here, and the line reflects it.

Livingston at +240 (or bigger) is being framed as the long shot despite the “better form.” That’s not an accident. The market is weighting Aberdeen heavily, suggesting a sharp correction is imminent. If the Dandies had even a sliver of momentum behind them, this line would be juiced north of -120.

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