Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit -110 over San Diego

9:40 PM EST. Jack Flaherty’s 2025 stat line looks ugly on the surface — a 4.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP — but the deeper metrics tell a very different story. His 3.81 xERA and strong 18% K-BB% suggest he pitched far better than the results indicated. What sank him was variance: a bloated 34% hit rate and a suppressed 67% strand rate, both clear signals of bad luck rather than declining skill. Those numbers typically normalize, and when they do, the ERA follows.

Flaherty still misses bats at an above-average clip and limits free passes, which is the foundation of sustainable starting pitching. That profile plays especially well in Petco Park, a venue that historically suppresses run scoring by roughly 7%, giving pitchers an extra margin for error. Against a San Diego lineup that has lost some depth and punch compared to previous seasons, this becomes a favorable matchup for a rebound performance.

On the other side, Randy Vásquez carries one of the most concerning skill profiles you’ll find among major league starters. A 5% K-BB% is a flashing red light — that’s well below the league norm and puts enormous pressure on batted-ball luck and defense. He also posted one of the lowest swinging-strike rates among comparable pitchers, meaning he simply doesn’t generate enough swing-and-miss to escape trouble when traffic builds. Pitchers with that combination rarely sustain success over time.

This line is essentially a pick’em, but the pitching matchup is not. One starter owns a stable strikeout-and-command foundation with metrics pointing toward positive regression. The other relies on contact management with very little margin for error. In a game expected to be tight and low-scoring, that difference matters.

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