Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Texas +105 over Philadelphia

4:05 PM EST. This one is all about trusting the underlying numbers over the surface narrative, and that’s where Jacob deGrom still separates himself. Even at this stage, the analytics say he’s firmly in that upper tier—his 2.97 ERA last season was backed by a very solid 3.36 xERA and a sub-3.40 xFIP range, with elite strikeout-to-walk numbers that continue to drive everything. When you’re carrying a K-BB% north of 20% and limiting baserunners like he does, you’re controlling outcomes, not leaving things to luck. The stuff is still there, the command is still there, and more importantly, the predictive metrics say what you’re seeing is sustainable.

Now flip it over to Aaron Nola, and this is where things get interesting. The surface ERA looked rough last season, and while his xERA (4.12) and xFIP (3.71) suggest some bad luck, they’re still a clear tier below deGrom. The bigger concern is the contact profile—he’s allowing more hard contact and barrels than you want from a frontline arm, which lines up with those middling expected stats. Nola can still miss bats, but when he’s not locating perfectly, hitters are squaring him up, and that’s the difference between a solid starter and a true ace in a matchup like this.

This is exactly the kind of spot where you take the plus money and don’t overthink it. Texas have the best pitcher on the field, and not just by name value—the advanced metrics back it up. When deGrom is even close to his expected performance levels, he tilts the game in a way few pitchers can. Meanwhile, Philadelphia  are relying on a pitcher whose underlying numbers suggest volatility. In a stat-driven matchup like this, backing Texas at plus money is the best side to be on.

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