Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Arizona -1½ +170 over Detroit

10:10 PM EST. This is a straight fade on Justin Verlander, and sometimes the handicap really is that simple. Verlander is 43 years old, and while the name still carries enormous respect in the betting market, the body doesn’t. Pitching at the major league level at that age is an uphill battle every single outing. Velocity dips, recovery takes longer, and command becomes inconsistent. It’s not about legacy — it’s about physics. At this stage, you’re betting on durability and sharpness that very few arms in baseball history have maintained into their mid-40s.

Michael Soroka, on the other side, quietly showed signs of real competence last season. His 3.77 xERA and 95/29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 89 innings point to a pitcher who rediscovered command and sequencing after years of injuries. He was particularly effective against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .203 batting average and a .622 OPS, which matters against a Detroit lineup that leans right-handed and lacks consistent power depth.

Soroka is not an ace — but he doesn’t need to be. He just needs to be steady, keep the ball in the park, and give Arizona length. The Diamondbacks offense and bullpen can handle the rest, especially at home in Chase Field, where their lineup plays with more confidence and run support tends to follow.

The market is still pricing Verlander based on reputation and past performance. We’re pricing him based on present reality. At 43, every start carries risk, and fading aging arms late in their careers has been a profitable angle for decades.

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