Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Texas +105 over Baltimore

6:35 PM EST. Chris Bassitt is making his debut for Baltimore, and the market is pricing him like a steady veteran presence — which he is — but this isn’t a clean landing spot. While Bassitt has historically been strong at home with a 2.99 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 110 career home starts, his track record at Camden Yards is a glaring outlier. In five starts there, all against Baltimore, he posted a 9.26 ERA and 1.93 WHIP across 23 innings. Different uniform, same ballpark — and this park can be unforgiving when command isn’t sharp early in the season.

On the other side, Jack Leiter quietly made meaningful progress down the stretch last year. The surface numbers didn’t jump off the page, but the trend line did. Over his final 41 innings, he issued just 10 walks and allowed only four home runs, while expanding his change-up usage — a pitch that generated a 32% whiff rate. That adjustment matters because it gave him a legitimate third weapon and helped stabilize his strikeout rate in the second half.

Leiter still has work to do with command — that’s no secret — but the skill set is moving in the right direction. His late-season performance suggests a pitcher beginning to translate raw talent into repeatable results. When young arms make that type of adjustment, the market is often slow to catch up.

This number is essentially a coin flip, yet the situational edges lean toward Texas. You’re getting a developing starter trending upward against a veteran making his first start with a new club in a park that hasn’t treated him kindly in the past. That’s enough to justify backing the underdog at plus money.

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