Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Boston +100 over Detroit

6:40 PM EST. Gray’s edge comes from his ability to pitch deeper into games without self-inflicted damage. Even in a mixed start profile this season, he’s still generating ground balls and limiting walks at an elite rate, giving Boston a steadier foundation on the mound. Flaherty, by contrast, has seen his command waver, and when paired with a WHIP north of 1.60, it’s a dangerous combination against a lineup that can capitalize on extra opportunities. Over 20 innings, Flaherty has already allowed 9 earned runs and continues to show inconsistency pitch-to-pitch, which makes him vulnerable if Boston applies early pressure

Sonny Gray (RHP – Boston Red Sox) vs Jack Flaherty (RHP – Detroit Tigers) is a matchup that leans more toward stability than surface ERA. Gray enters with a 2-1 record, 4.43 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP across 20.1 innings, allowing 22 hits with 11 strikeouts. While the ERA is average, his underlying profile shows strong control and an ability to limit free passes, which keeps traffic manageable. On the other side, Flaherty has struggled early with a 0-1 record, a 5.14 ERA, and an inflated 1.64 WHIP, allowing more baserunners and putting himself in constant trouble. That gap in command is critical, especially in a game where efficiency should decide the outcome.

From a betting perspective, this is a spot to back the more reliable arm and overall structure. The Red Sox have the clear advantage on the mound with Gray’s command and experience outweighing Flaherty’s volatility. In what projects as a fairly even offensive matchup, the difference comes down to which starter is less likely to implode—and right now, that’s Gray. Expect Boston to control the tempo, limit damage, and capitalize on Detroit’s pitching inefficiencies, making the Red Sox the moneyline play.

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