Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee -105 over St. Louis

1:10 PM EST. This starts with Andre Pallante (RHP – STL). One quality start in six outings, low swing-and-miss, and too much contact. His expected ERA sits in the mid-4s, which lines up with what you see — hitters are putting the ball in play and getting results. When a pitcher lives like that, innings don’t stay clean for long.

Pallante’s profile is ground-ball heavy, but that only works when the contact is weak. That hasn’t been the case. Too many balls are getting through, and when they do, they tend to do damage. With a low strikeout rate, there’s no way to escape jams once traffic builds.

On the other side, Brandon Sproat (RHP – MIL) is trending the right way. The velocity is there, the strikeouts are climbing, and the recent starts show progress. Eighteen strikeouts over his last four outings tells you the stuff is starting to play at this level.

Sproat also brings a ground-ball profile, but with better raw stuff behind it. When he’s locating, hitters have a tough time squaring him up. The results haven’t fully caught up yet, but the direction is clear.

This is a matchup between a pitcher allowing too much contact and one starting to miss more bats. At this stage, that’s the side to be on.

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