Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

LA Angels +105 over Kansas City

Ryan Johnson (RHP- Los Angeles) — 5.94 ERA 

Noah Cameron (LHP- Kansas City) — 4.72 ERA

4:07 PM EST. Ryan Johnson enters this matchup with the higher ERA, but the underlying numbers are what matter most to us. His current strikeout and walk profile gives Los Angeles something to work with, and the right-hander has shown enough swing-and-miss ability to work through Kansas City's lineup without relying on balls in play. The 5.94 ERA is certainly not attractive on its own, but we are looking beyond that number and focusing on the skills Johnson is bringing into today's start.

Noah Cameron has been the more effective pitcher by ERA, but his current profile does not make us eager to back Kansas City on the road. The left-hander has been working with a 4.72 ERA, and the matchup against a Los Angeles lineup gives the home club an opportunity to put pressure on him early. Cameron's strikeout-to-walk combination will be important here, and Los Angeles has the advantage of getting the left-hander in a familiar home environment.

This is ultimately a spot where we are putting more weight on the overall matchup than the ERA column. Johnson's ability to miss bats gives Los Angeles a way to keep Kansas City's offense from putting together long innings, while the Dodgers have the home-field edge and the lineup advantage against a left-handed starter. We expect the home club to put more consistent pressure on Cameron as this game moves along.

We are taking Los Angeles to beat Kansas City at home. Johnson's current strikeout ability gives us enough confidence on the mound, while the matchup against Cameron gives the Dodgers the offensive edge we want. The home side is the better bet today, and we expect Los Angeles to take control and finish this one on top.

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