Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis  +160 over Chicago

Hunter Dobbins (RHP- St. Louis) — 3.48 ERA 

Edward Cabrera (RHP- Chicago) — 5.12 ERA

3:15 PM EST. Hunter Dobbins gives St. Louis the pitching profile we want to back on the road today. The right-hander comes into this matchup with a 3.48 ERA, putting him in a much stronger position than the opposing starter from a run-prevention standpoint. More importantly, Dobbins has been doing a good job limiting the damage and keeping his innings under control, giving the Cardinals a legitimate chance to dictate the pace of this game from the mound.

Edward Cabrera enters on the other side with a 5.12 ERA, and the underlying numbers make that figure even more concerning. His recent work has produced a 5.48 xERA, a 1.55 WHIP and only a 10% K-BB%, which is not the profile we want to trust against a quality opponent. The lack of separation between strikeouts and walks has created too much traffic, and that puts additional pressure on Cabrera to consistently pitch out of trouble.

The contrast between these two starters is the biggest reason we are siding with St. Louis. Dobbins has been the steadier arm, while Cabrera's combination of a high xERA, elevated WHIP and modest K-BB% leaves very little margin for error. The Cardinals have the opportunity to put runners on base and force Cabrera into difficult counts, while Dobbins has the numbers to keep Chicago from creating the same type of traffic.

We are taking St. Louis on the road to beat Chicago. Dobbins gives us the better current pitching profile, and Cabrera's underlying numbers are simply too weak for us to overlook. The Cardinals have the clear edge on the mound, and we expect that advantage to carry them to a road victory today.

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