Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +205 over Philadelphia

Cade Gibson (LHP- Miami) — 5.61 ERA

Zack Wheeler (RHP- Philadelphia) — 2.90 ERA

6:40 PM EST. We are jumping right back on the Fish tonight, and once again the price is the biggest factor in this matchup. Zack Wheeler has the better ERA at 2.90, but that does not automatically make Philadelphia the side we want to lay the price with. Cade Gibson's 5.61 ERA is certainly not impressive, but this is about finding value rather than simply backing the pitcher with the lower ERA. The number being offered on Miami is simply too generous for us to ignore.

Wheeler brings the stronger surface results, but Miami does not need Gibson to outduel him for nine innings. The Marlins need their left-hander to keep the game within reach and give the offense an opportunity to make this competitive. That is the attraction with the price today. We are getting enough room with Miami to take the lesser-known pitcher and trust the overall number rather than paying a premium for Philadelphia.

The Marlins also gave us plenty to like offensively in the previous game, and they out-hit Philadelphia last night. We are going right back to the Fish because we believe the lineup can carry that momentum into tonight's matchup. This is not a pick based on reputation or past history; it is about the current numbers and the value sitting on the Miami side.

We are taking Miami on the road to beat Philadelphia. Wheeler deserves respect, but the price has gone too far in our opinion. We are jumping right back on the Fish, taking the value and expecting Miami to stay competitive enough to give us a real shot at another win tonight.

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