Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Seattle +140 over Milwaukee

Bryce Miller (RHP- Seattle) — 3.38 ERA

Kyle Harrison (LHP- Milwaukee) — 3.48 ERA

7:40 PM EST. Bryce Miller comes into this matchup with the slightly better ERA, and that gives Seattle a solid starting point on the road. More importantly, the gap between these two pitchers is minimal, which makes the current price on Milwaukee difficult to justify. Miller has been pitching effectively in his current form, and his combination of strikeout ability and control gives the Mariners the type of starting-pitching profile we want when taking the underdog.

Kyle Harrison has also been effective, but there is very little separating him from Miller based on the current ERA numbers. That is exactly why we are interested in Seattle today. We are not dealing with a matchup where one starter has a massive statistical advantage over the other. Miller's 3.38 ERA actually gives Seattle the slight edge, and that makes the road price much more attractive from a betting perspective.

This is the type of game where we want to avoid paying a premium simply because Milwaukee is playing at home. Seattle has the better number on the mound, and the Mariners have enough offensive ability to make Harrison work throughout the game. Miller's job is to keep the Brewers from creating separation, and his current run prevention gives us confidence that he can accomplish exactly that.

We are taking Seattle on the road to beat Milwaukee. Miller gives us the slight pitching edge, the ERA matchup is extremely close, and we believe the market has made the Brewers too expensive. This is a numbers-driven play on the Mariners, and we expect Seattle to come through with the road victory.

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