Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +244 over San Diego

6:40 PM EST. Brady Singer (RHP- CIN, 4.73 ERA) gets the ball for Cincinnati against Michael King (RHP- SD, 3.23 ERA) of San Diego. King owns the far better ERA, but that number does not tell the entire story. His underlying performance has been considerably less impressive, with the expected numbers pointing toward a pitcher whose actual run prevention has been better than the quality of his work. That makes King a dangerous pitcher to lay a premium price with, especially when Cincinnati is available at a generous number on the reverse run line.

Singer has certainly had his share of problems, but his profile is not completely devoid of positives. The right-hander has maintained a respectable strikeout rate while limiting the free passes, and the matchup sets up as a chance for him to work deeper into the game without constantly putting extra runners on base. The key here is not making Singer out to be the better starter. He isn't. The value comes from the difference between how these two pitchers are being priced and how they are actually performing underneath the surface.

King's 3.23 ERA is going to attract plenty of attention, yet his xERA and other underlying indicators paint a much less dominant picture. His strikeout rate has not been overwhelming and the walks have remained elevated enough to create additional traffic. That combination matters against a Cincinnati lineup playing at home, because a pitcher does not need to be hit hard consistently to get into trouble when free passes and balls in play begin to accumulate. The current ERA makes San Diego look much safer than the underlying numbers suggest.

King is carrying the superior ERA into this matchup, yet the supporting metrics do not justify treating him like a dominant ace. Singer's strikeout ability and control give Cincinnati a legitimate path to keeping the game under control early, while the home side gets the benefit of the deeper bullpen and last at-bat. Cincinnati -1.5 on the reverse run line is the play.

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