Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay -1½ +185 over NY Yankees(G1)

1:05 PM EST. Nick Martinez (RHP- TB, 2.94 ERA) goes against Carlos Rodón (LHP- NYY, 2.95 ERA), and the ERA column makes this look almost perfectly even. The deeper numbers tell a different story. Martinez has a 2.94 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and only 3.5% walks, translating to roughly 1.8 BB/9. His 4.40 xERA is higher than the surface number, but the command has been exceptional and his 3.99 FIP remains considerably better than the typical starter profile. Martinez has also been extremely efficient recently, allowing only five earned runs across his last 17.2 innings while issuing just two walks.

Rodón brings the bigger strikeout reputation, but his current numbers leave plenty of room to attack. He owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, yet his 3.53 xERA, 3.69 FIP and 3.91 xFIP all sit noticeably above the ERA. The strikeout rate remains strong at 26.3%, or 9.79 K/9, but the 12.1% walk rate is a significant difference from Martinez. Rodón has walked 38 hitters in 76.1 innings, producing a 4.48 BB/9. That combination of strikeouts and free passes gives Tampa Bay opportunities to create traffic even during at-bats where the left-hander is missing bats.

We are not paying the normal premium attached to a pitcher with a sub-3.00 ERA. We are buying Tampa Bay at a beefed-up number and asking the Rays to win by two or more. Martinez's command gives Tampa Bay a strong chance to avoid giving away extra outs, while Rodón's current walk rate creates precisely the kind of traffic that can turn one mistake into a crooked inning. Tampa Bay has also seen Martinez working deep into games recently, giving the Rays a chance to keep their bullpen in its preferred roles rather than asking it to cover an oversized portion of the contest.

This is the kind of price we want late in the season: two starters with similar ERAs, but one side offering considerably more plus-money upside. Rodón has the strikeout edge, but Martinez owns the command edge by a mile, and the underlying run-prevention numbers make the Yankee left-hander much less intimidating than that 2.95 ERA suggests. Tampa Bay doesn't need to be the popular side. We are taking the better price and expecting the Rays to put enough pressure on New York to turn this into a multi-run victory.

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